Model madness season began a week ago, and it’s still going strong. The ‘models’ get more attention than the forecast these days, but what do you do with what you see there?
(1) Models are single-guess snapshots of the weather at a moment in the future. If you are only seeing one picture, in some instances, that’s about 1/50th of the data available to make a good forecast.
(2) Models are fun, they spread like wildfire on social media, and they give us heartburn.
(3) Don’t pin your hopes for snow on one ‘run’ of a model. It’s probably going to change!
Here’s the Wednesday afternoon view of the situation:
The Bottom Line: It's fine to share in the buzz of model snow, but that data looks a lot more specific and 'real' than a real picture of the weather.
We do not believe there's greater than a 10% chance of any snow at all in North Alabama: from a flake to a dusting.
Central and South Alabama as well as West-Central Georgia? It's not 100%, but at least there's a chance:
— NWS Birmingham (@NWSBirmingham) December 6, 2017
And if you're looking for my opinion on whether or not someone should share a model plot on social media, I ask why are you worried about it? We've preached for years that you should listen to someone you trust. If someone you trust isn't giving it the time of day, maybe you shouldn't give it much thought either.