The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance over Central America that moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Beach weather for the long holiday weekend looks decent: limited rip current risk, warm days, muggy nights, and a typical chance of a few spotty storms in the area (especially on Labor Day).
Any impact from this disturbance would happen in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. At this point, we do not expect a repeat of anything close to Ida or even Sally from last year, but it’s worth watching. It does not have to be a ‘major’ storm to cause disruptive weather along the Gulf Coast! Both this disturbance, and Hurricane Larry could have indirect impacts on our forecast next week, regardless of track. An upper-level trough builds in towards the middle of the week, and the Gulf system and Larry will help pull this system further south and east.
A weaker Gulf system, or a stronger Larry further north and west than forecast could limit our cool-down some. We’re expecting highs in the low 80s, and a few morning lows in the 50s!