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The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance over Central America that moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

A surface trough over portions of Central America and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

This system is expected to move west-northwestward during the next day or two, bringing locally heavy rains to these areas.

The disturbance is expected to move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend, and then move northwestward to northward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week.

However, unfavorable upper-level winds could limit significant development during that time.

Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.


Beach weather for the long holiday weekend looks decent: limited rip current risk, warm days, muggy nights, and a typical chance of a few spotty storms in the area (especially on Labor Day).

Any impact from this disturbance would happen in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. At this point, we do not expect a repeat of anything close to Ida or even Sally from last year, but it’s worth watching. It does not have to be a ‘major’ storm to cause disruptive weather along the Gulf Coast! Both this disturbance, and Hurricane Larry could have indirect impacts on our forecast next week, regardless of track. An upper-level trough builds in towards the middle of the week, and the Gulf system and Larry will help pull this system further south and east.

A weaker Gulf system, or a stronger Larry further north and west than forecast could limit our cool-down some. We’re expecting highs in the low 80s, and a few morning lows in the 50s!

Looking for the rest of the forecast? It’s always online at and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

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