While the first half of this week looks absolutely fantastic, the second half of the week brings a more unsettled pattern.
Several waves of rain are likely starting as early as Thursday afternoon, but the heaviest and most widespread rain will be Friday into the weekend. All told, 3 inches of rain (or a little more in some spots) could fall between Thursday and Sunday.
Of course, as we head into the end of February and into the month of March, it’s natural to wonder about the severe weather threat. According to the Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Climatology page, if severe weather is going to happen the week of February 22, it’s almost always in the Southeastern U.S., and significant tornadoes in this time of year are often located in Mississippi and Alabama.
Remember: This is what has happened. Not what will happen. Not a forecast, just what climatology has been over the past few decades.
Our CIPS Analogs, which take the forecast models into account, and compare it to climatology show there is at least some potential for severe weather somewhere in the southeast with the kind of pattern we expect late this week into early next week.
At this point, I’d say severe weather over the next 5-7 days looks unlikely in the Tennessee Valley, but it’s not something we can totally take off the table yet either. We’ll have to keep an eye on these next systems, because it’s that time of year, but we’re not forecasting any severe weather for our area at this point.