A cold front pushes through the deep south to kick off the week. By early Monday morning, a line of gusty thunderstorms is approaching the Mississippi/Alabama border.
The timing of this line of storms means we avoid the heat of the afternoon initially, and that will help limit our severe weather threat. Still, enough wind shear will be in place to support a line of gusty thunderstorms, and perhaps a few severe storms within the line as well through mid-morning.
As we head into the afternoon, there could be a window of opportunity for storms to either re-develop or re-strengthen as instability builds in the afternoon. It’s unclear whether this second round of storms would materialize. If it did, the wind shear profile would not be as supportive of severe weather as in the morning, but more robust updrafts could potentially develop with enhanced instability.
It’s not entirely clear either of these rounds of storms would be capable of severe weather (1″ hail, 58+ mph wind gusts, or tornadoes), but there’s enough of a signal here for us to be on guard Monday.
A more substantial storm system moves through the Deep South on Wednesday. At least in the upper levels of the atmosphere, this system will pack quite the punch. An impressive synoptic setup for severe weather will unfold across the deep south.
Our confidence is very high in a high-impact severe weather event somewhere on Wednesday. It’s just not entirely clear exactly where in the Deep South that will be. The CIPS Analogs are clearly showing a strong signal for severe weather across Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Remember, this guidance takes the forecast pattern and previous climatology into account. When the map looks like this, there’s a high chance somebody is going to see severe weather. It’s just not a slam-dunk as to where. Some models suggest the highest threat will be near us. Others suggest it would be south of here. Regardless, it’s something that should be on your radar this week.
This is March. We usually expect things to start getting busy this time of year. Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio has fresh batteries and is ready to go. And double check to make sure Live Alert 19 is set up on your phone. We’ll keep you up to date on the app, online, and on air as we fine tune the forecast for these storms, and keep you up to date if and when any severe weather moves through.