Hurricane Larry remains an impressive hurricane this evening, and we can be thankful that this storm won’t directly impact the U.S. this week. Larry will take a northward turn away from the US east coast, but Larry will bring large swells to the Eastern Seaboard and could have some minor impacts on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
Closer to home, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche that could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week as it moves north through the Gulf of Mexico. Thankfully, this storm won’t be in an environment that’s overly favorable to rapid development, so unlike Ida, this system won’t be able to rapidly intensify in the Gulf. Regardless of development, this system’s main impacts will likely be rain and increased surf.
Long term, things look to stay quite busy in the Atlantic basin through the rest of the month. Multiple waves are moving across the African continent and will emerge in the Atlantic, where waters remain anomalously warm.
While the Main Development Region actually has seen sea surface temperatures drop a hair below average for this point in the season, pockets of deep, warm water remain across hurricane hotspots, especially in the Caribbean and along the U.S. East coast. Recent storms like Ida have led to upwelling of cooler than average water in the Gulf of Mexico. Remember: we’re using sea surface temperature anomalies here. Not the temperatures themselves. Just because there’s a blue splotch on the map, doesn’t mean that storms can’t develop or strengthen there. Typically, sea surface temperatures need to be at least 26.5°C for tropical development to occur, and we’ve got a lot of water well above that threshold in the MDR as well as in the Caribbean and Gulf.
We’ll continue to monitor each disturbance as they pop up, and hopefully by October things start to slow down some.