Tropical Development Likely by the Weekend

The Weather Authority

We are still a few weeks from the peak of the Hurricane Season but the Atlantic is showing no signs of slowing down. The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring three disturbances that have the potential to form by the end of the week or the upcoming weekend.

Disturbance one:

  • The first disturbance the National Hurricane Center is monitoring is an area of showers and storms located in the Caribbean Sea
  • This area of low pressure is forecasted to track to the west/north-west towards the warm waters of the Gulf
  • Favorable conditions will lead to the development into a tropical depression or storm is expected by the weekend
Disturbance one in the Caribbean Sea

Disturbance Two:

  • Disturbance number two is a trough of low pressure located in the Central Atlantic and is currently producing disorganized showers and storms
  • Unfavorable environment will limit any development until late in the week
  • An area of high pressure off the east coast will help move this system off to the east; further into the Atlantic
Disturbance two in the Central Atlantic

Disturbance Three:

  • The final disturbance being monitored is the least like to see any development within the next 5 days
  • The disorganized area of showers and storms will continue to track westward with little development expected by the weekend
Disturbance 3 in the Eastern Atlantic

What is a favorable enviornment for a tropical system to develop?

  • Warm waters of the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico; greater than 80°
  • Low values of wind shear; the increase in winds with height
  • A relatively moist enviornment; especially in the mid-level of the atmosphere
  • Some type of disturbance in the atmosphere; in this case a tropical wave

What would the next tropical systems be called?

NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration) is still predicting a very active Hurricane Season. A total of 15-21 storms are predicted to form this year. A total of 7-10 hurricanes with 3-5 of them being major hurricanes. So far there has been a total of 8 named storms; two landfalling hurricanes and eight landfalling tropical storms.

Will any of these storms impact us?

It is still too early to tell the exact impacts we could see here in Northern Alabama. The system that is most likely to impact us would be disturbance one; this is the one forecasted to move into the Gulf of Mexico.

The main question will be once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico where will it make landfall and who will see the worst impacts from it. Any slight change in the weather pattern will impact the potential track of this system. We will have a better idea of the intensity of this disturbance along with where we could see the worst impacts in the next 5-7 days.

Meteorologist Jessica Camuto

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