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The National Hurricane Center places a ‘high chance’ of development on another disturbance moving into the Gulf this weekend.

A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.


Any impacts around here?

It’s not very likely that this system (whether it develops into a full-blown ‘storm’ or not) has major weather implications for North Alabama or even the Alabama Gulf Coast. Some influence is possible, but this will not have big-ticket potential for Alabama (or Florida) if it goes as expected.

September, on average, is the driest month of the calendar year. Huntsville International measured 0.65″ of rainfall in the first 10 days, and the odds of significant rain stay low for at least the next week.

The disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico helps churn some tropical moisture northward next week: likely just enough to spark some hit-or-miss downpours in the heat of the day on any given afternoon.

At this point, it doesn’t appear we’ll be close enough to this system to bring widespread rain, but where those tropical downpours pop up next week, rain could be heavy! That could increase rain totals in one of our driest months of the year.

Looking for the rest of the forecast? It’s always online at and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

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