Tropical Atlantic: ‘high chance’ of development soon

The Weather Authority

The National Hurricane Center has eyes on two trouble spots in the Atlantic Thursday afternoon:

  • One weak tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles with a low probability of tropical cyclone development
  • A stronger wave coming off the coast of Africa (Invest AL92) with a high probability of development within the next five days.

Tropical Weather Outlook  

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL  

200 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021  

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:  

1. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau later tonight. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.  

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.  

 

2. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.  

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent. Forecaster Stewart 

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook

Impacts on Alabama?

If you have Gulf Coast travel plans in mind, there’s no need to worry about either of these features in the short-term. At the earliest, it would be about 7 to 10 days before anything from this part of the ‘MDR’ (Main Development Region) would approach the Gulf of Mexico – if it does at all.

Thursday’s ECMWF ensemble guidance shows a low chance (<20%) of a tropical depression nearing the Bahamas, Florida or the Caribbean between August 12th and 15th.

It’s likely that those odds increase later in the month as the bigger-picture items around the Northern Hemisphere become more favorable for tropical development.

Looking for the rest of the forecast? It’s always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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