The words you thought you’d never hear again after such a wet winter: ‘we could use a little rain!’ It’s true. We don’t need a lot, but it has been dry lately: only 0.41” at Huntsville International since March 14th. The first of a series of rainy days comes today, and while it won’t rain the entire day through, there is a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms throughout the day into the evening.
Timing Thursday’s rainfall: The Storm Prediction Center outlines an area of severe weather risk mainly southwest of Alabama and Tennessee on Thursday. The new update at 8am Thursday morning has the slight risk even further south and west of our area:
The risk of severe storms technically touches a few western Alabama counties; it does not look like we will have significant severe weather in this state on Thursday. We’re missing the fuel and strong dynamics for widespread intense storms, but we will have plenty of lift and moisture available for widespread rain and some scattered thunderstorms here and there that could drop more than an inch of rain in spots through Friday morning.
Your best chance of rain Thursday in North Alabama and Southern Tennessee comes after 3 PM through midnight; however, some showers are possible (especially in Northwest Alabama) earlier in the day. The most widespread, heaviest rainfall begins in The Shoals around 3 PM and moves east through the evening. Another batch of locally-heavy downpours develops after 10 PM and rumbles on through the early morning hours on Friday.
Total rainfall through Friday morning ranges from 0.5” on the low end to 1.5” on the higher end.
Friday and the weekend: Showers move out Friday morning, and it gets warm and dry in the afternoon: highs range from the mid-60s to the lower 70s. We’ll stay dry Friday night and most of Saturday, but there will be some scattered showers and isolated storms building northward in the afternoon and evening: from Central Alabama toward North Alabama between noon and 8 PM. Saturday’s 20% chance of rain is more of a ‘heads up’ for the potential of some rain than a guarantee that rain will occur where you are at any given moment.
The chance of rain on Sunday and Monday is a ‘for sure’ of rain, but it does not look like a total rain-out Sunday. In fact, most of the rain may hold off until Sunday night and early Monday morning. That late-night timing may help stave off any risk of severe storms, but we will keep a close watch on it nonetheless!