Tennessee Valley’s Winter Outlook

The Weather Authority

On Thursday October 21st, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) came out with their 2021 Winter Outlook. The Winter Outlook extends from December 2021 to February of 2022.

For the second winter in a row, La Niña conditions will lead to a drier and warmer Winter for the South. While the South experiences drier conditions for the Winter, areas North of the region will see wetter conditions.

La Niña Conditions Developing For This Winter

NOAA’s Temperature Outlook for Winter 2021-2022

Temperature Outlook:

  • Warmer than average temperatures are most likely to occur the Northeast & southern portions of the United State: best chance for above average temperatures will be in the Southeast.
  • Below-average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Plains.
  • The Upper Mississippi Valley and small areas of the Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

Precipitation Outlook:

  • The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley and western Alaska have the greatest chances for wetter-than-average conditions.
  • Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast.
  • The forecast for the remainder of the U.S. shows equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation during winter months.

More information on the Winter Outlook

What can we expect the next couple of weeks?

Heading into early November the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below average temperatures. The above photos show that Northern Alabama has a 60-50% chance of seeing below-average temperatures; during November 5-13, 2021.

The average high temperature during the 6-10 day outlook (Nov. 5-9) is 67.2° & the average high temperature during the 8-14 day outlook (Nov. 7-13) is 66°. These two maps show that during these time periods we have a 60-50% chance to see temperatures at or above 66 or 67 degrees.

During the month of November, we see an average of 4.35″ of rainfall. The two photos above show the potential of seeing above or below-average rainfall, for November 5-13, 2021.

We see, on average, 1.11″ of rainfall between November 5th and 13th. The information above, provided by the Climate Prediction Center, indicates there is a 40-50% chance to see above-average rainfall during this time period. This does not mean each day we will see rainfall, it just shows that within each time period there is that potential to see more than 0.63″ of rain.

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