Tennessee Valley could see warmer and wetter-than-average conditions this fall

The summer season ended slightly below average temperature-wise for us here in the Tennessee Valley. For record-keeping purposes, the summer season consists of the months of June, July and August.

As we head into the fall, the temperatures will gradually cool down. During a normal fall season in the Tennessee Valley, the average temperature ranges from around 60 degrees to 64 degrees. Last year, Huntsville saw highs in the 70s in early September and a few days recorded 70s in the later part of the month. For Huntsville, the average high temperature for September is 86.5 degrees, October is 76 degrees and November is 64 degrees.

Huntsville sees cooler and wetter-than-average summer

Now, while the climatological first day of fall isn’t until September 23rd, for record-keeping purposes, the fall season consists of the months of September, October and November.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its outlooks for this upcoming season. They are predicting the Tennessee Valley will see above-average temperatures and above-average rainfall this fall.

The CPC is predicting the area has a 33-40 percent chance of above-average temperatures. When looking at the precipitation outlook, CPC is predicting the area has a 33-40 percent chance of seeing above-average rainfall.

THOUGHTS AND EL NIÑO

It will be interesting to see how our fall actually shapes up. An El Niño pattern developed in early June and while effects are more prominent in the winter months, we can still see some effects in summer and fall. That said, our summer in Huntsville was cooler and wetter than average. It will be interesting to see if this trend actually continues into fall with El Niño expected to persist through the winter months. Looking at the El Niño climate pattern, the Tennessee Valley is split with a better signal favoring cooler and wetter conditions compared to average a little more south with the northern sections more likely to experience drier-than-average conditions. As of right now, my thought is that we’ll see above-average rainfall through the fall. I think temperatures could go either way.

Remember, just because above-average temperatures are favored, we can still see cold air outbreaks. Also, even though drier conditions may be favored, we can still see heavy rain events. It’s all about averages.