2:14 PM Monday: The Storm Prediction Center says there’s only a 20% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued for Middle Tennessee and the northern edge of Alabama; however, just because we don’t have a (or expect a) watch doesn’t mean severe weather will not happen.
— NWS SPC (@NWSSPC) July 22, 2019
It just means the expectation is for a low chance of isolated severe storms. In other words, your odds are low, but it if happens to you, you need to be prepared to move indoors quickly!
A rare summer cold front crosses the region Monday afternoon and evening bringing a round of heavy rain and storms. The main threat at this point will be damaging winds. While we aren’t expecting a widespread severe weather event, it won’t take much to produce flash flooding with recent rainfall. With the saturated ground, small trees could come down as well. The Storm Prediction Center has a *MARGINAL RISK* for severe thunderstorms across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this afternoon.
The window for strong storms will be noon to 8pm. Rain chances overnight remain elevated with leftover showers in the morning Tuesday. After that, we are in good shape for cooler and drier air Tuesday afternoon through the weekend.
Look at the rest of the week. Rain chances go away and temperatures won’t be as hot. Not only will see highs in the middle 80s, but lows dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday morning.