The Weather Authority is monitoring the potential for another round of strong storms Monday night. This will be associated with a mesoscale convective system, also known as an MCS, that will develop northwest of the Tennessee Valley. In fact, as of 6 pm, numerous severe storms are already occurring in central Missouri and our storms will originate there.

A MCS is a complex of storms on a large scale and can be in a round or linear formation. Usually when we see an MCS form, an outflow boundary develops ahead of it. An outflow boundary separates the thunderstorm-cooled air from the warm unstable air. This is exactly what occurred across the area on Sunday night.

The MCS Monday night will form across Missouri and is forecast to track southeast during the overnight hours. It will be along the outflow boundary, that a line of storms are expected to develop. While the greatest risk for severe storms will be north of the area, it will be important to monitor radar trends.

Closer Look To Tennessee Valley Storm Threat:

Taking a closer look at the Tennessee Valley itself, while isolated showers and storms could develop early in the evening it will be later in the night that the greater risk of storms will be. A line of storms will begin to approach northwest Alabama around 10 pm Monday night and then track southeast.

It will be within that line that isolated severe storms will be possible. This activity is forecast to continue into the early morning commute, though rainfall by that time will be light.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has the majority of the Tennessee Valley in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5, 1 being the lowest) for strong to severe storm development. This chance for strong to severe storms will be isolated in coverage overnight, with the best chance being for areas north of the Tennessee River.

Any storms that develop will have the capability to produce strong winds, large hail and heavy rain. Localized flooding will be possible in locations that have received heavy rain in the past 24 hours. Frequent lightning will also occur in the strongest.

Stay weather aware and make sure to stick with the Weather Authority for the latest.