Still Monitoring Potential Subtropical Development

The Weather Authority

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure off the coast of Florida for potential subtropical development this morning. 

NHC continues to monitor disturbance off Florida coast

Now, I’ll say up front, this is likely to be a subtropical storm rather than a purely tropical storm. The impacts are the same though. The good news: this system won’t have any direct impacts on Alabama. The storm has been fairly slow to organize so far. 

Most of the storm activity has been well northeast of the surface low, a sign the system may be battling some wind shear. Wind shear usually hinders tropical development, but in this case we expect some continued development over the next couple of days.

Most models project this system to intensify over the next several days. While it won’t be fully tropical, it should reach tropical storm strength within the next 48 or so hours. 

Here’s the latest discussion from the NHC. 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 810 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of Florida. 1. An area of low pressure located just offshore of the southeast coast of Florida continues to produce shower activity and gusty winds from portions of southeast and east-central Florida eastward across the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low is gradually becoming better defined, but the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Continued gradual development is expected, and the system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today or tonight while it moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of Florida. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of east-central Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today. In addition, hazardous marine conditions will spread northward during the next few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. See products from your local weather office for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the disturbance. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if needed. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

2 AM EDT NHC Outlook

– Alex Puckett
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