Hurricane season in the Atlantic doesn’t officially start until June 1, but it’s not unheard of to have some pre-season activity in May. We may see a little bit of activity in the Caribbean in the next few days. Ensemble models have suggested a low pressure system could develop east of the Bahamas within the next 5 days or so, and the environment could support some subtropical development.
We’ll keep an eye on this, but this system, if it develops, will have no direct impacts on the Tennessee Valley. Still, the Main Development Region of the Atlantic basin (an area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America where most named storms originate in the Atlantic basin) has higher than normal sea surface temperatures, meaning additional activity will remain possible as we head towards the “official” start of the hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center has noted the potential for subtropical development over the next 5 days east of the Bahamas as well. They give a 70% chance of subtropical development over the next 5 days.
Here’s there discussion as of Wednesday morning:
We’ll keep you in the know if this system does end up developing.