Some Mischief In The Tropics

The Weather Authority

Hurricane season in the Atlantic doesn’t officially start until June 1, but it’s not unheard of to have some pre-season activity in May. We may see a little bit of activity in the Caribbean in the next few days. Ensemble models have suggested a low pressure system could develop east of the Bahamas within the next 5 days or so, and the environment could support some subtropical development.

We’ll keep an eye on this, but this system, if it develops, will have no direct impacts on the Tennessee Valley. Still, the Main Development Region of the Atlantic basin (an area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America where most named storms originate in the Atlantic basin) has higher than normal sea surface temperatures, meaning additional activity will remain possible as we head towards the “official” start of the hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center has noted the potential for subtropical development over the next 5 days east of the Bahamas as well. They give a 70% chance of subtropical development over the next 5 days.

The NHC notes potential for subtropical development.

Here’s there discussion as of Wednesday morning:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020 Corrected to remove double labels For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this week or early this weekend near or within a couple of hundred miles north of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent. Forecaster Latto

NAtional Hurricane Center

We’ll keep you in the know if this system does end up developing.

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More on the upcoming hurricane season (Atlantic) can be found here:

– Alex Puckett
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