Significant Flooding Threat Taking Shape Next Week

The Weather Authority
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Some Strong Storms Possible

There is still a lot of uncertainty (unanswered questions) about just how the rain and storms develop next week. We expect a lot of rain, but the medium-range model guidance is all over the place with the timing, intensity and placement of the severe weather threat.

We’ll start the week with rain – and maybe some thunder at times – on Monday. Rain gets heavier on Tuesday, and temperatures surge to the upper 60s and lower 70s Tuesday.

There will be enough instability (fuel) for some storms, but the primary severe weather threat Tuesday likely stays west of Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi for the potential for severe weather on Super Tuesday. 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday
Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday

We could see some strong or severe storms late Tuesday into Wednesday, but the modeling is in poor agreement beyond 3-4 days out right now, meaning we aren’t all that confident in our severe weather threat here. It’s something to keep paying attention to, but it’s possible all we get out of this is a heavy rain event.

What about flooding?

The flooding threat, at this point, looks more significant. Models are still in disagreement over how much rain we could see, but I’d expect a minimum of 2-3 inches of rain next week, but there’s the potential for 5 or more inches if certain things play out right. 

GFS Rainfall Forecast
GFS Rainfall Forecast

If that were to happen, we’d be dealing with widespread flash flooding as well as another round of river flooding too. No matter what the weather does next week, it will likely be impactful. Be sure to stay up to date with the forecast. 

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– Alex Puckett

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