Rainy Tuesday, Stormy Thursday
Another round showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder is likely as a decaying line of storms ahead of a cold front approaches from the west Tuesday. These storms won’t pose a severe weather threat, but could produce occasionally heavy rain. It appears the best chance for particularly heavy rain will remain south of us with this round of rain, as storms to our south may prevent additional heavy shower and storm development here during the afternoon and evening.
On Wednesday, those storms form a big blob of storms along the Gulf Coast. Wednesday will be a washout down there. Here in North Alabama, those storms to our south will keep our atmosphere in check. Outside of a few isolated showers, rain will be harder to come by Wednesday through the day.
Those storms end up lifting North after midnight, showers and storms will be widespread by Thursday morning as a warm front tries to lift north across Alabama.
Ongoing storms ahead of that warm front will limit how far North it can go. A cold front approaches from the west. Where the warm front has lifted north, an unstable airmass will be in place, and low level shear thanks to a surface low in Arkansas will be supportive of some severe weather.
Like our last round of storms on Wednesday, it looks like it’s going to be really tough for the unstable air to make it this far north.
Because of that, we may not see a severe weather threat this far north, but small changes in the overall forecast make a big difference to the type of weather we can see here. Keep up with the forecast over the next few days as we fine-tune things for Thursday, and have a way to get important weather information Thursday. Just like on Wednesday, I feel fairly confident there will be severe weather in the Southeastern U.S. on Thursday. Whether we see severe weather here in North Alabama and Southern Tennessee is still up in the air a bit, but it’s better to be prepared as another round of storms approaches.