It may not “feel” like summer yet, but we definitely have a summer-like pattern developing through the weekend. The question is just how long can this last?
A strong ridge over the Gulf and Southeast keeps widespread rain away, but it doesn't totally eradicate daily pop-up, heat-of-the-day, spotty showers and thunderstorms.
Warm, humid air hangs around the region through the weekend; daytime highs hit the lower 80s, overnight lows drop into the lower 60s, and there is a daily chance of a few hit-or-miss showers.
Ten days and counting: Wednesday marked the tenth day since we last had significant rain measured at Huntsville International Airport. Some spots got pounded with storms last week, but the rain was not very widespread. Our meager chance of showers means many of us stay dry through the weekend.
The next good chance of showers and a few storms comes on Monday; even then, coverage looks very spotty and uneven.
A return to stormy weather? The last week of March and the first week of April brought a lot of storminess, but thankfully the destructive severe weather didn't materialize for the Tennessee Valley. This quiet period may have you wondering if the severe weather season is over.
That would be a big "not yet!" Next week's unsettled weather is the beginning of a pattern change that could send some more widespread rain and, yes, potentially some strong or severe storms this way between April 20th and 30th.
Long-range ensemble guidance is definitely hinting at some storminess around the 23rd. The yellow line indicates a trough axis. Areas left of the line are in a region favorable for rain and storms.
Let's be real for a minute. It's not saying a lot to say "I expect some storms in a 10-day period in late April." That's literally the peak of severe weather season, so in reality it would be very unusual for the pattern to stay as-is through early May.