What threats are possible through the next 2 weeks? Looking at the long range pattern, we can see what kinds of impacts the weather can bring to the Tennessee Valley. While we can’t give a very accurate forecast 14 days out, we can sometimes tell if the weather pattern supports certain kinds of impactful weather are possible, and how likely they are to occur in a 2 week period.
For the period from October 22 to November 5, we can rule out winter weather. The forecast pattern does not support the potential for any snow or ice. We can, however, say there’s a decent chance we see cooler air move in and bring some frost, particularly towards Halloween and the very start of November.
Severe storms and flooding?: There’s some indications based on the forecast pattern for the end of this week that there could be some strong to severe storms and flash flooding in the southeastern U.S. There is strong model disagreement on the location and timing of storms and rain, but the potential is there, and we have some confidence there will be some strong to severe storms and heavy rain somewhere in the region later this week. We’ll be fine tuning the forecast for rain and storms in north Alabama over the next few days. There’s no guarantee we will see strong storms or heavy rain in the Tennessee Valley, but there’s enough of a chance that you should pay close attention to forecast changes over the next few days.
Meteorologist Alex Puckett