Increasing Odds: moderate chance of tropical development

The Weather Authority

The National Hurricane Center upped the odds of near-term tropical cyclone development just off the coast of Georgia and Florida Friday afternoon.

The latest outlook reads like this:

An elongated low pressure area centered about 150 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce some showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low meanders offshore or near the Florida peninsula.  

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50percent.  


Here’s some insight from one of the men writing the outlooks. If you want a good follow on Twitter for tropical meteorology, Philippe Papin is a wealth of information:

Where might it go?

If – IF – it develops into a depression or storm, the steering currents are pretty weak right now. That means there is no clear direction for future movement; that leads to a lot of uncertainty and ‘spread’ among the model guidance.

Friday afternoon model guidance for the next five days

Here is the updated names list. Fred is next.

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