It is Groundhog Day again, and the famous groundhog Phil has predicted another six weeks of winter. But, have Phil’s predictions over the years been correct?
Since 1887 Phil has seen his shadow 106 times, predicting a longer winter. 20 times Phil did not see his shadow, predicting an early spring. There are 10 times that we do not have a record of a report from Phil.
When it comes to Phil’s accuracy over the years, we can look at climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and compare it with Phil’s predictions. Over the past 4 years, Phil only had one correct prediction, which was back in 2020 when he did not see his shadow. During February and March, we had above-average temperatures across the nation, making Phil’s prognostication accurate.
Over the past 10 years, Phil has been right only 40 percent of the time. That is not a very high accuracy rate, then again he is just a rodent. Nevertheless, the groundhog has predicted more winter weather this year. Yet, it looks like it will feel more like spring sooner, rather than later.
Looking at the temperature outlook for the middle of the month, temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal. That means that daytime highs will be above 57 degrees, and morning lows will be warmer than 36 degrees across our area. This warmer trend looks to continue into spring with above-average temperatures through April.