October weather outlook

The Weather Authority

We are two days away from the first week of October, and we are feeling a bit more like summer than fall. Will the warm and muggy conditions follow us into October?

The main reason we have been seeing summerlike weather across Northern Alabama to end out September is thanks to a southerly wind flow. We will begin to see a change in the weather pattern heading into the new month. With winds shifting out of the north-northwest, thanks to a frontal passage Monday, it will start to usher slightly cooler and drier air into the region.

What can we expect temperature wise?

Heading into the first couple of weeks of October the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting slightly warmer than average temperatures. The above photos show that Northern Alabama has a 50% chance of seeing above-average temperatures; during these time periods.

The average high temperature during the 6-10 day outlook (Oct. 5-9) is 79.9° & the average high temperature during the 8-14 day outlook (Oct. 7-13) is 78.8°. These two maps show that during these time periods we have a 50% chance to see temperatures at or above 79° or 78°.

How much rainfall could we see?

During the month of October, we see an average of 3.56″ of rainfall. The two photos above show the potential of seeing above or below-average rainfall, through the first two weeks of October.

We see, on average, 1.11″ of rainfall between October 5th and 13th. The information above, provided by the Climate Prediction Center, indicates there is a 40-50% chance to see above-average rainfall during this time period. This does not mean each day we will see rainfall, it just shows that within each time period there is that potential to see more than 0.7″ of rain.

When do we see our first freeze?

Average First Freeze for Tennessee Valley

Temperatures typically fluctuate during the fall season here in the Tennessee Valley, but freezing temperatures are typically uncommon early in the season. Here in Huntsville, the average first freeze occurs on November 2nd; the earliest a first freeze has occurred was October 9th, 2000.

A hard freeze, here in our area, is defined by temperatures below 29°. As we head into the first week of October, temperatures

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