The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its 2023 hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic Basin and is now forecasting an above-average season. This is a change from the near-normal season they were forecasting back in May.

The update shows that 14 to 21 named storms may occur, with six to 11 of them being hurricanes and two to five being major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are hurricanes that have winds of 111 mph or greater. NOAA’s previous forecast in May called for 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes with one to four of them becoming major hurricanes.

The reason for its upgrade is the record sea-surface temperatures that look to offset the strong El Niño, which typically suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic. The average number of named storms is 14. The average number of hurricanes in a season is seven, with three of those being major hurricanes.

The next name on the 2023 Atlantic Basin hurricane name list is Emily. Hurricane season runs through November 30.