Colorado State University issues several Hurricane Season forecasts through the first part of the season. Their most recent forecast was released today, and suggests the rest of this season will be incredibly active.
Including the storms we’ve seen so far, they’re predicting 24 named storms, and 12 hurricanes. Thats about double what we’d see in an average season! We’ve seen a ton of named storms so far, and by most metrics, the North Atlantic has been incredibly active through the first bit of the season.
Let’s take a closer dive into Accumulated Cyclone Energy (A.C.E.): It was just three weeks ago I wrote that, while we had seen several named storms, A.C.E. was running fairly close to average in the North Altantic. That’s not the case anymore. A.C.E. is running nearly 300% of normal for this point in the season, and the forecast A.C.E. suggests this could be a very busy season.
Colorado State’s forecast puts A.C.E. at 200, which would be in the top 10 of all hurricane seasons since 1851! Now, this is not something to get alarmed about. 2010 was a hyperactive season, with an A.C.E. over 150, but the strongest storms stayed over open water. This forecast doesn’t make any claims about landfalls. But, it lets us know the tropics will probably be much more active than normal.
The next few days look fairly quiet in the Atlantic(outside of a disorganized disturbance that will likely fizzle away in a day or two), but there are hints of some activity in the Main Development Region in the next couple of weeks.
When we see a signal like this in the models, there are often fear-mongering posts showing massive hurricanes approaching the U.S. spreading on social media. Those are absolute garbage. Don’t fall for those. At this point, the only skill we have in the 7-14 day time period is noticing a pattern that could support tropical activity. Anyone suggesting otherwise is just trying to get a few extra clicks.
We’re still several weeks away from the normal peak of the hurricane season.
So, I’d expect things to really start to ramp up over the next 3-6 weeks. We’ll keep you up to date on tropical activity as we head through the rest of the season here, and on the Live Alert 19 app.