The National Hurricane Center is noting the potential for some tropical development later this week off the coast of Central America in the far Southwestern Caribbean. This is the area we told you about last week. Development along the Central American Gyre (C.A.G.)will be possible later this week. That’s a common spot for storms to develop this time of year. The C.A.G. is a broad area of low pressure over Central America that can commonly be a focal point for tropical storm development in the Caribbean and East Pacific.
We’re still likely several days away from any development (if there is any development), so the NHC’s forecast only calls for a 20% chance of tropical depression or storm formation within the next 5 days, but those numbers could go up later in the week if development looks more likely.
Deterministic computer models (models that put out one solution for what the weather will do) at this stage of the game aren’t particularly useful at this stage of the game. Ensemble models (models that show a range of solutions for what the weather could do) show some potential for development though. If a tropical storm can form, it would be named Bill.
It’s far too early to say if any potential system could have any impacts along the Gulf Coast. We’ll be monitoring this over the next several days and keeping you informed on how the forecast evolves.