Saturday morning through early afternoon looks to be mainly dry, but isolated showers can’t be completely ruled out. Temperatures this morning are already near 70 degrees across the area and are expected to continue to rise to near the mid to upper 70s by the afternoon.
The warm, moist, unstable air will support this threat of strong to severe thunderstorm development. Some models are hinting at some breaks in cloud cover late this morning would lead to some sunshine. This sunshine will lead to a destabilization of the atmosphere.
We really begin to see showers and storms developing by the afternoon. Although some develop early, the greater threat for severe weather will arrive for the 3-4 o’clock hour. These discrete cells will develop out ahead of the main line of storms. With an unstable air mass and wind shear in the atmosphere and the severe weather threat will increase quickly. By 5 or 6 pm, a line of intense storms will move into Northwest Alabama from the northwest and push southeast across the Tennessee Valley through the night.
The main line of storms we will be watching very closely will develop along the cold front. This will move from west to east during the evening and overnight hours. This line of storms will have the potential for intense and destructive winds, tornadoes, and hail. Additionally, spots that see multiple rounds of heavy rain could deal with flash flooding.
Be sure to be prepared for severe weather Saturday and Saturday night.
Above you will see an approximate timeline for when the strongest storms will develop across the area. The latest-model updates are coming into agreement that the window for severe weather will be during the mid-late afternoon through the overnight hours. This will be a prolonged event because isolated severe storms will potentially develop ahead of a squall line. As mentioned, this is an approximate timeline and may need to be adjusted as we get closer to the event.
Take the necessary preparations down to ensure you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings. Download the Live Alert 19 App and also make sure your NOAA Weather Radio has fresh batteries in it. Stick with the Weather Authority as we bring you the latest updates regarding this severe weather event.