As expected, the Tropical Atlantic has shown some increased activity recently, with multiple tropical waves moving through the basin. I’ve already written about why we expected a bit more activity to flare up. You can read that post below.
Three things stand out in the satellite view of the Main Development Region of the Atlantic right now.
The red and yellow circles are areas the National Hurricane Center have highlighted for the potential for development over the next 5 days. The blue circle appears to be another weak tropical wave exiting the African coast. The tropical wave in the red circle appears to have the highest chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next few days.
The NHC gives this wave a 70% chance of development into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named “Fred”. This tropical system’s path would likely have it interacting with the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, and Cuba, which could inhibit significant strengthening in the longer term. Short term, conditions look fairly conducive for development into a tropical depression or storm east of the Lesser Antilles today. Once this system moves west of the Lesser Antilles, conditions become less favorable for development in the short term, with shear increasing further west and dry air in place that the storm would likely ingest, slowing strengthening down quite a bit.
Additional terrain interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba could further limit development as this system approaches the Caribbean and perhaps the Gulf. As we head through this week, we’ll have to watch this system closely, as there could be some impacts to the U.S. by next week.
Overall, despite a very quiet stretch in the Atlantic Basin since July 14th, (the day Elsa dissipated), we’re still running above average for Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Atlantic Basin this year thanks to that fast start in July.
We’ll see if we get any more named storms in the next 5 days to add to our A.C.E. total this year.