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The National Hurricane Center estimates a 50% chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone development over the northern Gulf of Mexico through late week.

The difference between the two is somewhat of a meteorological hair-split; tropical cyclones are full-blown ‘warm core’ lows. Subtropical cyclones are somewhat hybrid tropical/mid-latitude.

(If you’re interested in learning more about the difference, there’s some good information from the National Weather Service here: “Tropical, subtropical, extratropical?“)

Here’s the Tuesday evening tropical weather outlook from NHC:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat this evening over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for development, but they are forecast to become slightly more favorable by late Wednesday, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system nears the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night or Thursday.

The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some slight additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent. Forecaster Stewart


What does this mean for the Alabama/Florida Gulf Coast?

The ‘forecast’ weather conditions have not changed on the coast with this statement from the National Hurricane Center:

  • Rough surf through Thursday
  • Moderate rip current risk (at least yellow flag if not red-flag days at Gulf Shores & Orange Beach)
  • High chance of rain and storms Wednesday & Thursday

Looking for the rest of the forecast? It’s always online at and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

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