The National Hurricane Center estimates a 50% chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone development over the northern Gulf of Mexico through late week.
The difference between the two is somewhat of a meteorological hair-split; tropical cyclones are full-blown ‘warm core’ lows. Subtropical cyclones are somewhat hybrid tropical/mid-latitude.
(If you’re interested in learning more about the difference, there’s some good information from the National Weather Service here: “Tropical, subtropical, extratropical?“)
Here’s the Tuesday evening tropical weather outlook from NHC:
What does this mean for the Alabama/Florida Gulf Coast?
The ‘forecast’ weather conditions have not changed on the coast with this statement from the National Hurricane Center:
- Rough surf through Thursday
- Moderate rip current risk (at least yellow flag if not red-flag days at Gulf Shores & Orange Beach)
- High chance of rain and storms Wednesday & Thursday