Looking ahead toward rain & storms Sunday into Monday

The Weather Authority

January has been unusually dry so far. Rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday added up to a little more than a third of an inch in Huntsville: making the monthly total 1.43″ as of 4 PM Thursday.

That’s less than 40% of our normal monthly rainfall.

We’ve got some ‘catching up’ to do, and we’ll make some progress toward that Sunday and Monday: around 1-2 inches on average with some locally-higher totals upwards of three inches.

What’s the timeline?

There are some details to be worked out on the timing of the rain and strength of the storms. As of this writing (Thursday), there is no obvious, immediate risk of severe storms with this system in Alabama and Tennessee.

That’s not a ‘definitely no severe weather’ statement, but it looks like most of the ingredients for severe weather probably won’t come together around here.

Expectations for the Sunday-Monday storm system

It will be windy and rainy: around 1-2″ of total rainfall with occasional gusts to 40 MPH on Monday.

An average January thing?

January is typically the fourth-wettest month of the year in North Alabama and Southern Tennessee. We’ve already established that it’s been abnormally dry, but we can trace back that lack of rain to the over-all weather pattern that has been very, very ‘average’ lately.

Weather is more variable this time of year than any other. There are often wild swings from warm to cold in January and early February. Those ‘wild swings’ are often so wild that there’s really no such thing as ‘average’ this time of year.

Technically, the average daily high is around 51ºF, and the average daily low temperature is around 32ºF. Realistically, if we’re within 11ºF to 12ºF of those numbers, we’re within the normal January temperature range.

Lately, we’ve been well within the bounds of normal.

New Year’s Day is the only blemish on this abnormally-normal January. It was 18ºF above average that day, but every day since has been 6 degrees above and 8 degrees below it (mostly on the cold side).

This Sunday-Monday storm system will bring one really warm day (Monday in the mid-60s) before we drop back into the ‘normal’ range again next week.

Looking for the rest of the forecast? It’s always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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