We completed the first full week of October and it was a soggy one in some locations. Thanks to the cut-off low that continued to usher moisture into the region, we saw localized heavy rainfall across Northern Alabama. Parts of Madison, Marshall, Jackson, Morgan, and Cullman Counties saw in access of five inches of rain causing major flooding conditions on Wednesday. So far for the month of October, here in Huntsville, we have seen 2.39″; on average we see 3.56″ during the month of October. So far for the month of October, in Muscle Shoals, they have seen 2.61″; on average they see 3.47″.
Heading into the second week of October, rainfall looks to be isolated in coverage, especially the first half of the week! A better chance for scattered rain showers arrive late week as a cold front moves through the region. At this vantage point, forecast models are trending towards light rainfall across the area; though localized higher rain amounts will be possible.
Is more rain in the forecast?
We see, on average, 1.06″ of rainfall between October 15th and 23rd. The two photos above show the potential of seeing above or below-average rainfall, through the next two weeks. The Climate Prediction Center has portions of Northern Alabama in a 40-50% chance to see above-average rainfall during this time period This does not mean each day we will see rainfall, it just shows that within each time period there is that potential to see more than 0.7″ of rain.