The week will start off mainly dry with a mix of sun and clouds but an area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the Gulf Of Mexico increasing rain chances.

The Weather Authority will closely monitor an area of low pressure that will develop over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. This disturbance will track to the east-northeast Tuesday through Wednesday, increasing the chance for rain.

Latest model trends show continued confidence in gusty winds associated with this system but differences when it comes to the track. While some models keep the system close to the coast, others push it farther north. Rain looks likely in South Alabama but becomes more scattered in coverage in North Alabama late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Above is a look at two separate scenarios we could see by mid-week. The main difference in the model trends has been the exact track of the low. This factor will be key in determining the coverage of rain and the amount of rain we see.

A southern track, keeping the low closer to the coast, will limit the coverage of rain showers here in North Alabama leading to little rainfall. If the low tracks farther north, we will have a better chance of seeing pockets of heavy rain wrapping into the area. Showers will still be scattered in coverage but the rain totals would be higher.

When looking at the rain totals, up to a tenth of an inch is possible across the area through Friday. That’s because we have another system tracking through on Friday. These totals are highly dependent on the exact track of the mid-week low-pressure system. If more widespread rain with localized downpours tracks north, rain totals will be higher.

What to monitor:

As mentioned above, the main factor the Weather Authority will be monitoring is the exact track of the system. It will be the track that will determine the coverage of rain and totals we see. There will be a sharp cutoff between who sees heavy rain and who sees light rain.

While there is still some uncertainty regarding the amount of rain we will see, winds are forecast to turn gusty. Gusts Wednesday could be upwards of 30 mph, especially in Northeast Alabama.

Stick with the Weather Authority for the latest.