The first weekend of Fall has been beautiful with plenty of sunshine, cool temperatures, & dry conditions, but just how long is the dry weather going to last?
The current weather pattern we are in has led to a dry and sunny start to the fall season! High pressure in control of the region will continue to usher dry air into the area. This dry air in place is helping to keep any rain chances away and the sunshine around!
As we head into the new workweek, we will see a shift in our wind directions. This southerly wind flow will usher in moist and warm air into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. This wind direction will lead to an increase in dew point values, meaning muggy conditions will return.
When does the threat for rain return?
The potential for rainfall in the coming weeks is looking to be slim to none. The Climate Prediction Centers Rainfall Outlook for October 1st – 9th, shows Northern Alabama likely to be below average for rainfall for that time of year. On average, in Huntsville, we see 0.7″ of rain per week in October.
The GFS (Global Forecast System) is indicating an increase in the moisture content heading into the end of the week through the weekend. This will be thanks to a southwesterly wind flow. If we see enough instability from a cold front passage, a few spotty showers could pop-up during the afternoon hours. Any rainfall would quickly come to an end as more dry air is ushered into region behind this frontal passage.
We will continue to forecast mainly dry conditions during this time period, due to the amount of dry air that will still be in place. We are still nearly a week out, so this is subject to change with each updated model run.