It’s rare to get slam-dunk snow forecasts in the deep south, and this one is no exception. Borderline temperatures will likely lead to a lot of disappointments for snow lovers in parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Alabama this go-around. Snow begins to move into parts of the Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi from Texas late Sunday night into early Monday morning. We think temperatures are going to be pretty marginal for this event.
For those who see mostly or all snow, there will be some pretty good snow totals. Texas will be the big winners this go around. Heavy snow totals are likely from the Panhandle through Central Texas. There could be a few spots pushing a foot out there, with widespread totals above 6 inches. Decent snow totals extend into parts of Northern and Central Louisiana, where there could be a few isolated totals over 6 inches, with most around 3-5 inches. 2-4 inches will be possible around parts of West and North Mississippi. Those totals drop off pretty rapidly as we get towards the Alabama state line though. Thermal profiles this far east are likely to support a rain/snow mix, but tiny changes in the vertical temperature profile can mean the difference between a few flakes, and a slushy snow sticking like a few lucky spots saw Thursday night. Right now, I think significant snowfall (>1″) is unlikely in North Alabama or Southern Middle Tennessee. There could be some spotty coatings of snow though in parts of Northwest Alabama, and in some of the higher elevations in Northeast Alabama and extending into Tennessee on the Cumberland Plateau.
We’ll have to keep a close eye on how things develop to our west Sunday night and Monday morning. For now, those snow lovers out there should plan for more disappointment, but there could be a few lucky spots that get a little snow to stick Monday.