June 1 is the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and seasonal forecasts are starting to come out. With only a little more than a month left to go before the season starts, these early forecasts give us some insight into what to expect this season.
The 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) was released this week. The forecast calls for a below-average season with 13 named storms. On average, a season typically has 14 named storms, with seven of those being hurricanes and three of the storms being major hurricanes. The CSU forecast calls for six hurricanes and two major hurricanes during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
This forecast is typical for an El Niño pattern that is likely to set up this summer. This results in higher wind shear and less favorable tropical development conditions across the Atlantic Basin. That does not mean that we will not get any tropical development, but it likely will result in fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.
As we get closer to the month of June, we will start to watch areas that are typically favorable for tropical development. These areas of possible tropical development are along the Gulf Coast and along the Eastern Seaboard during the month of June.
When the first named storm of the season develops, it will be given the name Arlene, the first on the list for 2023. This list of names is recycled every six years, so the names that are used this year, will be used again in 2029 unless they are retired. The storms that are strong and cause catastrophic destruction and death have their names retired. Some names from last year that you will not see again are Fiona and Ian because of the death and destruction these storms caused. The World Meteorological Organization has retired the names from the list.
Stay with The Weather Authority as we get ready for the upcoming tropical season.