Today is the first day of hurricane season for the Atlantic basin. We’ve already had Arthur and Bertha. We may have Cristobal later this week. Moisture over the Yucatan Peninsula could head to the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week as our next tropical depression.
The National Hurricane Center gives this an 80% (HIGH) chance of development over the next five days.
Where is this system going?
It’s too early to tell as guidance has the system all over the place. It’s something we’ll have to monitor in the coming days.
1. A large area of disturbed weather, associated with the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, is located over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. This disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development, and a new tropical depression is likely to form within within the next day or so. The system is then forecast to drift west or west-southwest over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Interests along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2020 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation ------------------------------------------------------------- Arthur AR-thur Laura LOOR-ruh Bertha BUR-thuh Marco MAR-koe Cristobal krees-TOH-bahl Nana NA-na Dolly DAH-lee Omar OH-mar Edouard ed-DWARD Paulette pawl-LET Fay fay Rene re-NAY Gonzalo gohn-SAH-loh Sally SAL-ee Hanna HAN-uh Teddy TEHD-ee Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs Vicky VIH-kee Josephine JOH-seh-feen Wilfred WILL-fred Kyle KY-ull Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that develops this season will be Cristobal.