Chance of development in the next 48 hours and five days

The Atlantic Basin has been quiet lately with no named storms forming and no potential for tropical development within the next 48 hours or five days. One of the reasons for the suppressed activity is the Saharan Dust Layer. It’s been heavy off the coast of Africa in the Atlantic and this dust tends to suppress the development of storms. Model data shows the dust layer sticking around for at least the next 48 hours.

Saharan Dust Forecast

The peak months for hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin are August through October with the peak itself being in mid-September.

Tropical Atlantic Activity

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, has updated its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season. While they are still predicting an above-average season, they have reduced the number of named storms to 14 to 20 from the 14-21 they were predicting earlier in the year and the number of major hurricanes from three to six down to three to five.

NOAA’s Latest Tropical Cyclone Forecast

The next name on the Atlantic hurricane list is “Danielle.”