A Deep Dive Into The Forecast For Tropical Depression 19

The Weather Authority
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 3-1.jpg
Tropical Depression 19 Traversing Florida’s Peninsula

Tropical Depression 19 is moving west across the Florida Peninsula early on this Saturday morning. It will come out the other side in the Eastern Gulf, and continue it’s western trek towards the Northern Gulf Coast by early next week.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 4-2.jpg
1 AM Forecast Track Has Strong Tropical Storm Impacting Gulf Coast This Week

Based on forecast conditions for this system though, folks along Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama’s Gulf Coast should be preparing for a hurricane. Sea surface temperatures remain above average in the Eastern and Northern Gulf.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png
SSTs are above average in the Gulf.

That is coupled with low wind shear in the Eastern Gulf, makes a fairly primed environment for future development.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Inkedwg8shr2.gif
TD 19 will cross into an area of favorably low shear in the Eastern and Northern Gulf

Most models show at least modest strengthening in the coming days, with some still suggesting a run at hurricane strength remains possible.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 5.png

While there’s a lot of potential for TD 19 to develop in the Gulf, it’s currently a bit tilted, with the low and mid level centers a bit displaced.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 11.jpg
The low level center (red circled) is displaced from the mid level center of the storm.

This tilt could cause TD 19 to more slowly organize and strengthen if it persists. That’s why the National Hurricane Center is forecasting strengthening, but more gradual strengthening rather than a rapid intensification. That tilt could also lead to a more lopsided system, which would keep most of the heavy rain on the eastern side of this storm. Considering its northwestward track, this would likely lead to very heavy rainfall along the Northern Gulf Coast. This is probably the threat we have highest confidence in with this system moving forward.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 10.jpg
Incredibly high rainfall totals from Coastal LA to the Florida Panhandle this week

For those along Alabama’s Gulf Coast, Mississippi’s Gulf Coast, the Florida Panhandle, and Southeastern Louisiana, preparations should be under way for hurricane conditions now, including high winds, flooding, and storm surge. Tropical Storm Force winds will be moving into Alabama’s Gulf Coast by Sunday night or Monday morning. Keep up to date with this storm and the rest of the activity in the Atlantic Basin using our interactive map below.

Download Live Alert 19 for iOS or Android.

– Alex Puckett
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook

Click Here To Send Us Your Photo