We get a lot of fast-paced changes in weather this time of year: cold and dry to mild and wet, chilly to stormy, and soaking wet back to cold again. The ups and downs of the next week will need some adjusting from time to time, so don’t be surprised if you see the numbers on the forecast go up a little or down a little as we adjust for timing on individual shots of cold air, rain, and maybe a little bit of snow as well.
Rainy and milder next: Warmer air starts moving in early Tuesday. That and a stiff southeast breeze brings afternoon temperatures into the 50s Tuesday. Our 50% chance of rain Tuesday is back-loaded: little to no rain at all early in the day, a few showers by sunset, and the best chance late in the evening.
Rain sets in Tuesday night into Wednesday, and it looks like another soaker: 1” to 2” of rain expected through Wednesday night. Showers might – might – end as some light snow showers or flurries, but we expect little to no accumulation (and no travel issues whatsoever around North Alabama or Southern Tennessee).
Thursday and Friday are looking drier and colder: highs in the 30s/40s, lows in the 20s again.
Weekend outlook: A complicated weather pattern sets up this weekend, and the forecast is bound to change a little as we get a better feel for how it’s all going to play out. First of all, it does not look like we will have a major snowfall around here this weekend; however, there is a chance that some snow could develop over the South Saturday night into Sunday.
Who gets it? It’s too soon to say, but even if you do get some snow, it’s not likely to add up to much: certainly not a ‘major’ snow even by our standards.
When would it happen? An area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast may be suppressed to far south for any precipitation at all on Sunday in North Alabama, but if that low ends up a little farther north and in better alignment with the main branch of the jet stream, it could be a little more interesting.
Cold outlook: The cold weather in the next 10-14 days doesn’t look record breaking or even all that unusual for late January or early February. We have an ‘average’ high and low around 51º and an average low around 32ºF; those numbers are just the middle of the extremes we often see with cold snaps and quick warm-ups.
Will there be a legitimate threat of snow? It’s hard to say if it will or won’t definitely do it, but this kind of pattern is what a snow-lover hopes for in the next two weeks. We’ll see how it pans out!