While the Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th, the peak of activity occurs during the month of September.
Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin primarily intensifies late August through the month of September. September 10th is the peak of the season and it is also halfway through the season. During a normal season, activity over the Atlantic would slowly begin to come down – though a brief uptick is possible again on October 20th.
During the month, storms generally develop in the far eastern Atlantic off the west coast of Africa. The Central and Western Atlantic are generally also prime areas for tropical development during the month of September.
This season, El Niño conditions are expected to continue to strengthen through the end of November. Normally, El Niño would limit tropical development over the Atlantic due to stronger trade winds. The stronger wind shear breaks down tropical systems. What has counterbalanced the El Niño effect has been the record-breaking ocean temperatures and the African Monsoons; allowing for an active season so far.
NOAA Forecasters updated their season predictions due to the recent interactions between water temperatures and El Niño conditions. They are forecasting that 14 to 21 named storms may occur, with six to 11 of them being hurricanes and two to five being major hurricanes. So far this season, 13 storms have formed with 3 being major hurricane strength (maximum winds over 111 mph).
During the month of August specifically, six storms formed with two of those becoming major hurricanes. Based on the 30-year average (1991-2020), between three to four typically develop with one or two being a hurricane. During the month of August, a major hurricane forms every one to two years, the last time was in 2021.
Atlantic Basin Names Left
Heading into the second half of the season, there are still eight names left on the list to go through. Remember, the season will officially end on November 30th so there is plenty of time to go. The next name on the list will be Nigel.