Monday was the hottest day of the year so far around here.
The heat and humidity of summer sometimes take a break in August. It’s not all that uncommon to have a strong cold front visit from the north knocking down temperatures for a few days. There is growing confidence that about 8 to 10 days from now we will have one of those cold fronts will moving through the region.
The medium-range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) shows a fairly high confidence (in the darker blue) that cooler-than-average weather sets up around the 20th.
That’s still a long way into the future, so the magnitude of the cool down is questionable. It will almost certainly be cooler then than it is now!
So how cool could “below average” be for Alabama and Tennessee?
The most likely scenario is one of high temperatures in the upper 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. That is your typical ‘cool down.’
The American-run GFS guidance goes all in on the optimism, though! Warning: this is for your amusement, not your planning for an early Fall.
Check out the 19th and 20th: highs in the 70s? Lows in the 50s?
That’s extremely optimistic and probably at least 4ºF to 8ºF too cool across the board.
The potential for cooler weather is there, and it’s real. The 70s and 50s may be a little bit of a pipe dream, but it’s not like it has never ever happened before in August.