Slim Rain Chances On The Horizon

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No significant relief to dry pattern: While rain chances aren’t exactly zero through the rest of the week, their isn’t a drought busting type of rain in sight either. We will stay dry through Tuesday, but Wednesday and Thursday we could see a couple of downpours.

Breaking down the model data: The latest model runs have been a bit more bullish on rain Wednesday across northwest Alabama. While we will have enough moisture to support a few rogue showers and storms, I tend to think the latest model run may be a bit too eager to pop storms.

Model likely overestimating rain coverage Wednesday

I expect one or two showers or storms to pop up, but when we get in a dry pattern like this, we don’t typically see a setup like Wednesday bring a lot of rain. Still, a few lucky spots west of I-65 could get a brief downpour. The model seems to handle storm coverage a bit better Thursday.

The model output for Thursday is more likely what things will look like over the next couple of days.

That looks a bit more like what we would expect in this kind of environment. A few isolated showers and storms, with most spots staying dry. Generally, rainfall totals will be below 0.1″ through the rest of the week. Of course, with the model showing more rain Wednesday, it’s also likely overestimating rain totals across northwest Alabama as well.

It’s not impossible one lucky spot could get over a quarter inch of rain, but for 99%+ of us, 0-0.1″ is what we can expect through the end of the week.

Having a trained meteorologist look at the model data and properly interpret it is important. That’s why so many weather apps for your phone aren’t accurate. They simply spit out the model data as a forecast, and there’s no meteorologist there to fine tune things. That’s why Live Alert 19 is great to have on your phone. The forecast you see is from one of your Weather Authority meteorologists, not straight from the computer. That means it’s more accurate. You can download Live Alert 19 here. 


Meteorologist Alex Puckett



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