Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Likely Will be “Isaias” Later Today


We’ve been watching this system over the last several days. It’s better organized and will be Tropical Storm Isaias soon. 

The official track takes the system west-northwest toward Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.  It’s forecast to be a tropical storm shortly.

Global models are in agreement with this scenario. Intensity forecast are consistent as the cyclone battles Saharan dust and dry air. Most keep it as a tropical storm over the next week!

Florida eyeing TC #9 for the weekend

Here is the text from the National Hurricane Center. 

Satellite and surface data indicate that the system remains a 
trough of low pressure, elongated from SSW to NNE, with almost all 
of the strong winds far north of the center position.  The most 
significant curvature in the low-level wind field and on radar are 
near Dominica now, which has good continuity from the previous 
advisory, so this feature will continue to be used as the center.  
A combination of unflagged SFMR winds from an Air Force plane and 
earlier scatterometer winds support 40 kt as the initial wind speed.

The initial motion estimate is about the same as before or 295/20 
kt. The ridge to the north of the disturbance is forecast to remain 
strong for the next 36 h, which keeps the system moving speedily in 
a general west-northwestward direction just south of the Leeward
Islands today, and near or over the Greater Antilles on Thursday.  
The ridge is forecast to weaken after that time, which should cause 
the cyclone to slow down, and potentially gain more latitude over 
the southwestern Atlantic.  The model guidance is generally showing 
a narrow ridge persisting for a bit longer, however, causing a 
small south and west shift in the new NHC forecast at long range. 
However, it should be emphasized that this forecast track is highly 
uncertain until a true center forms.

Satellite images indicate that a large burst of convection is 
occuring near the poorly defined center, which will likely lead to 
the system becoming a tropical storm later today

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