In the Tropics: Is “Josephine” On the Horizon?


We are moving right along in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Center. We could have our tenth named storm shortly! A strong tropical wave is well east of the Lesser Antilles Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center gives this one a 90% chance of development in the next two days.

Computer guidance takes the system north of the Lesser Antilles through the first of next week. If this is the case, the chances of the system getting into the Gulf of Mexico are a little lower. We’ll have to wait and see where it moves heading into next week.

The intensity forecast brings the system to tropical storm status shortly. The next system is called named Josephine.

Here is the text from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. First-light visible satellite imagery shows that a better-defined 
center of circulation is forming in association with a low pressure 
system located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity has become more organized since yesterday.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional 
development, and advisories could be initiated on a tropical 
depression as early as later today if these development trends 
continue.  The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward 
at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few 
days, and conditions are expected to become less conducive for 
development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Berg

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