Saturday Night Update: Severe storms expected before midnight, through early Sunday morning

Weather

UPDATE 3/29/20 AT 2:30 AM – The NWS has extended the Tornado Watch for Franklin (TN), Dekalb, Jackson, and Marshall counties until 5 a.m.

UPDATE 3/29/20 AT 2:15 AM – The NWS has extended the Tornado Watch for Lincoln, Moore (TN), Colbert, Cullman, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, and Morgan (AL) counties until 5 a.m.

Temperatures rose to the low-80s Saturday afternoon, but a cold front moving in tonight brings a threat of a few severe storms.

The risk of severe storms comes AFTER 10 PM in North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee.

Severe storms are possible in Mississippi and West Tennessee between 6 PM and 9 PM, but from around 9 PM until 7 AM, we’ll be watching those storms in North Alabama and Southern Tennessee.

Our primary threats will be some gusty winds over 50 MPH and some hail; a tornado is possible. It’s just that time of year when we can see storms produce those kinds of things without a ‘major’ storm system rolling right overhead.

The Storm Prediction Center has upped the probability of tornadoes in Tennessee and Mississippi tonight. The 10% ‘hatched’ area means a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. You could look at it like this:

If the risk of a tornado on this given date according to climatology is 0.4%, this is a 250-times greater chance that a tornado could happen within 25 miles of you. It’s still not a very high number, but it speaks volumes about our confidence that tornadoes will happen within some storms tonight.

This line of storms weakens after 3 AM as it approaches Northeast Alabama and the Cumberland Plateau; that accounts for the sharp drop-off in the tornado probability level.

Track heavy storms with WHNT.com’s Interactive Radar or swipe over to the radar feature on Live Alert 19!

Looking for the rest of the forecast? It’s always online at WHNT.com/Weather and in the “Daily Forecast” section on Live Alert 19!

-Jason
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