Wednesday Morning, November 25, 2020
Chief Meteorologist Jason Simpson
/Meteorologist Ben Smith

Occasional showers, a gusty south wind, and a risk of some severe storms Wednesday

The chance of rain Wednesday is high; however, the impact of that rain may not be what it appears to be on the surface. Over-all rainfall totals will range from as little as a tenth of an inch to as much as one inch in isolated spots through Wednesday night.

Three things to watch on Wednesday

  • Expect a blustery day: wind gusts may top 40 MPH through the afternoon.
  • Rain is likely: some get a little, some get up to 1″ before midnight.
  • Severe storms are possible! Strong, damaging winds are the main threat, but a tornado could develop in this kind of environment. Be alert!

Track heavy storms with WHNT.com’s Interactive Radar or swipe over to the radar feature on Live Alert 19! You can also get up-to-date, location-based alerts wherever you are on Live Alert 19. Download it today for iOS and Android.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center outlines ALL of North Alabama and Southern Tennessee with a risk of a few severe storms in the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The first wave of showers begins in Northwest Alabama by sunrise, and it slowly moves across the Tennessee Valley region through the morning into early afternoon. Showers like this bring uneven rainfall: mostly light but some heavier downpours here and there.

The impact of the morning rain and clouds has a lot to do with how intense storms could get in the afternoon and early evening.

No sun at all? It stays cooler and could cancel the severe weather threat.

A little sunshine and a decent warm up? That would enhance the threat.

That’s a narrow a line we’re walking between just some rain and a few intense afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Futurecast Baron 3KM model simulated radar at 6:30 PM Thursday

Some of those stronger storms could produce damaging wind gusts over 60 miles per hour, and there is a chance that a tornado could develop within any rotating storms. The risk is not high-end here, but it is real and substantial enough that you need to be on guard Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thanksgiving Day through the weekend

The cold front producing the stormy weather Wednesday slowly moves out on Thursday. Some leftover clouds and showers hang around through Thursday morning, but the weather improves dramatically from lunchtime on through the afternoon: becoming sunny with a light north wind. Temperatures warm from the 40s in the morning to the mid-60s in the afternoon.

Black Friday starts chilly and dry: 40s in the morning under a clear sky. Temperatures rise to the upper 60s in the afternoon, but increasing clouds through the day ultimately lead to some rain moving in after sunset. That spells some wet weather for high school football playoffs: not a total rain-out, just occasionally wet with light showers in the area.

Friday night’s rain moves out early Saturday as another cold front passes. It stalls over South Alabama Saturday afternoon, but the drier air behind the front shuts down the showers around here for most of the day.

More rain develops Sunday: a decent soaking! Up to 1″ of rain could fall (especially southeast of Huntsville) through Sunday afternoon and evening, and then much colder air blows in Sunday night into Monday.

How cold are we talking here?

November has been awfully warm: only three freezes all month in Huntsville and nothing colder than 31°F so far.

That changes next week! We’re expecting a major shot of cold air that has some staying power. Temperatures drop to the 20s at night and only climb into the 40s and 50s in the afternoons for most of next week.

Some longer-range guidance shows a chance of wintry weather; however, that seems highly unlikely at this point. It’s something to watch but not a likely outcome.

TENNESSEE VALLEY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: Showers possible throughout the day. Some heavier rain and potentially-strong thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Windy and milder. Highs in the mid-60s. Wind: SSW 15-25 gusting to 40 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain and storms ending. Some lingering showers overnight. Cloudy and cool. Lows around 50ºF. Wind: WSW 5-10.

THURSDAY: Early AM clouds and showers. Becoming partly to mostly sunny and mild in the afternoon. Highs in the middle/upper 60s. Wind: W 5-10.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Fair and chilly. Lows in the upper-40s. Light South wind.

FRIDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Mild with some scattered showers developing late in the day. Highs in the upper 60s/near 70ºF. Wind: SW 5-10.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers. Cloudy and cool. Lows in the lower 50s. Wind: SW 6-12.

SATURDAY: Morning clouds and showers. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. Wind: NE 6-12.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Cool. Lows in the upper 40s to near 50°F.

SUNDAY: Rain likely. Up to 1” of rainfall possible. Highs in the middle 50s. Wind: NW 6-12.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Turning colder. Drying out again. Lows in the 30s. ‘Feels like’ temps in the 20s. Wind: NW 5-10.

MONDAY: Sunny and colder! Highs in the lower 40s. ‘Feels like’ temps in the 30s. Wind: NW 10-20.

MONDAY NIGHT: A freeze likely. Lows in the mid-20s.

TUESDAY: Fair and cool. Highs in the 40s. Wind: NNE 10-15.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear and cold. Another freeze. Lows in the 20s.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, chilly and dry. Highs in the 50s. Wind: N 6-12.