The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the western Atlantic and another in the Caribbean:
Tropical Weather OutlookNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a non-tropical low pressure system located about 550 miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to become better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more organized. Additional development of this system is expected, and a subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
We’ve already gotten to Delta on the second list of names (the Greek alphabet), so Epsilon and Zeta are the next names on deck.
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta
Where would they go?
October tropical climatology suggests less threat to the Gulf Coast (Alabama, NW Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas); however, the East Coast and the Caribbean are more susceptible to a hurricane strike this month.
Here’s the climatology…
And here’s the computer model-generated ideas of where those two disturbances could go over the next 120 hours (starting Friday afternoon, October 16th):
There will be many ‘model’ solutions in coming days floating around on social media: especially relating to AL 93 (the Caribbean disturbance)! No particular model is ‘right’ at this point, but there could be a threat to Cuba, Florida and the US East Coast within the next 10 days.