Cool, dry air can get really chilly at night and really warm during the day: especially when the ground is dry! The lasting effect of the weekend’s rain was to increase ground moisture significantly, but even that wetter ground won’t stop the wide-ranging temperatures over the next few days.
Start with Wednesday: downright cold in the ‘cold spots’ early but a little too warm for sleeves in the afternoon. Temperatures start out in the 40s but touch 80ºF by afternoon: a 30 to 35 degree jump from coldest to warmest under a sunny sky with a light southeast wind.
A lot of dry weather ahead
October is usually the driest month of the year. Last year, we broke a drought in October setting up one of the wettest twelve-month periods on record in Huntsville.
Huntsville International Airport has 60.02″ recorded for 2020 so far. January 1st to October 1st, we measured 57.97″ of rain. October-December of 2019 brought 18.24″ of rainfall for an October to October total of 76.21 inches. If that had been a January to January calendar year, it would go down as Huntsville’s wettest year on record: beating the record by nearly three inches.
Dry weather this time of year is common and healthy for agriculture, and the next two weeks look fairly dry for North Alabama and Southern Tennessee: some rain, yes…a lot of rain, not likely.
A strong cold front arriving Thursday afternoon brings a chance of a shower through early Friday; another chance of showers comes with another front early next week, and that’s about it for rain in the near future.
Into next week: more chill?
The weekend chill wears off a little on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next ‘big’ cold front; it passes Tuesday, and there are some disagreements in longer-term model guidance about just how cool it gets!
The American-run GFS model projects some serious cold: maybe cold enough for a widespread freeze by next Wednesday (pictured below). Other guidance holds the cold to the west.
It’s a little too soon to know exactly how it will play out, but right now our forecast leans into the colder side of things for the middle of next week. Watch for adjustments (for colder or warmer) so you can prepare accordingly to protect anything outside you’d like to save from the potential of an early frost.