November has been unusually warm and dry.
Huntsville International measured 0.48″ through Wednesday afternoon for a grand total of 0.56″ of rain so far this month. Through the 25th, that’s eighth-driest on record since 1894 in Huntsville!
The warmth hasn’t been record-breaking: only 2.3ºF above average so far. Warm weather is about to be a thing of the past, though! A colder pattern develops with a strong storm system coming in on Sunday.
Rain comes down in buckets on Sunday, and then cold air rushes in behind it Sunday night into Monday.
There might even be enough moisture left with cold enough air for some snowflakes.
Accumulating snow? Although a lot of model guidance points to a small amount of snow, the ground is warm. That will make it hard to total up any real snow on the surface.
It’s also outside the realm of what anyone is comfortable with ‘calling’ an early-season snowfall in Alabama and Tennessee, so while I won’t say “NO ABSOLUTELY NOT IMPOSSIBLE CAN’T HAPPEN,” I will say “don’t get too excited about it just yet.”
Here’s another view of ensemble data from the midday GEFS (same set, different ‘run’ of the model suite). It shows a 30-50% chance of at least 1″ of snow between Monday and Tuesday of next week.
It’s happened before: 2017 being one of the more recent, notable ‘surprise’ December snows
It will happen again. Sometime.
It’s just too soon to know with any certainty whether we get the first flake let alone enough to turn the ground white.
The cold weather is a little more certain. There’s a high probability of below-average temperatures through the first 7-10 days of December.