June has been relatively cool so far!
Cool is in relative terms, though!
Huntsville International Airport’s average temperature is 2.1°F below the 30-year average through June 24th in spite of having a few really hot days: four in the 90s, the hottest being 93°F on the 13th.
Summertime is the least-variable season for weather in Alabama and Tennessee; it’s almost always hot, humid, and occasionally stormy, and that’s what we expect for the foreseeable future:
Interestingly enough, as hot as those highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s look, it’s practically ‘average’ weather.
Huntsville’s average high in late June and early July is 90°F, and the average low is around 70°F. If we’re within five degrees of those on any given day (85-95 by day and 65-75 at night), we’re in the range of normal Tennessee Valley summertime weather.
So, what you see is what you get. It stays hot and humid, and we’ll keep at least a chance of some scattered storms around through next week and next weekend.
A rain chance is an approximation; it speaks to confidence that rain occurs and how much could happen, but it is rarely a guarantee because of how unevenly it happens – especially in the summertime!
Through next week, be ready for a few quick downpours here and there; they become more widespread late in the week, but at no time do we see a 100% guarantee that every plot of land in North Alabama and Southern Tennessee gets appreciable rainfall through next Friday.
No extreme heat in sight
Longer-range outlooks (next 7-14 days or so) suggest that we don’t have any real threat of excessive heat or developing drought through the first half of July.
There’s a lot of blue on the CPC temperature outlook, and a lot of green on the rainfall outlook for our part of the country. The colors actually represent the odds of being hotter than average, colder than average or just plain old average.
While it’s very likely that we stay ‘below average’ technically, don’t expect any more of that nice cool, crisp air anytime soon! You can translate that map to mean a better chance of daily showers and storms likely keeps the temperature from running past 90°F most days through at least July 9th. It does NOT mean cool weather is coming; that’s reserved for late September (if we’re lucky).
What does this mean for the Independence Day Weekend?
At first glance, next Saturday looks fairly wet: maybe not all-day soaking rain, but numerous scattered thunderstorms. Timing this far out is very difficult – nearly impossible – but should the weak system we see stirring up Saturday move out as expected, that would leave us a little hotter with fewer scattered storms on Sunday, July 4th. A first look isn’t a final forecast, but we appear to be on the cooler side of average with a slightly better-than-average chance of some scattered storms.