Jalen Hurts and the Eagles remain small 1.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs after opening as 2.5-point favorites.
Sportsbooks continue to be flooded with bettors fading a banged-up Kansas City club in favor of a Philadelphia squad that has shown little areas of weakness en route to 16 wins in 19 games. Nearly 76% of the wagers placed on Super Bowl LVII have been in support of an Eagles’ victory.
Faced with the impossible task of deciphering between the best player in the NFL (Mahomes) and the most-balanced team (Eagles), bettors should instead focus their betting bankrolls on the plethora of expanded player proposition investments offered by oddsmakers on Super Bowl Sunday.
Travis Kelce, who has scored 15 touchdowns in 17 career playoff games, will move past Rob Gronkowski (15) on his next trip to the end zone and only trails Jerry Rice (22) for the most in NFL postseason history. Can he score versus a Philadelphia pass defense that has only allowed three touchdowns to tight ends?
Mahomes led all quarterbacks in the regular season with 41 passing touchdowns and 5,250 passing yards. In each of the four previous postseasons, Mahomes has scored at least one rushing touchdown and had five in 11 games. His ankle injury, though, has factored into his six total rushing attempt this postseason and zero rushing touchdowns. Can he rush one in against an Eagles’ run defense that only allowed one quarterback (Daniel Jones) to score a rushing touchdown this season?
Hurts broke Cam Newton’s single-season rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (15) in the NFC championship. Is Hurts worth an investment at +105 odds to add to that touchdown production against a Chiefs’ defense that has surrendered four rushing scores to quarterbacks?
Respected information from Las Vegas has helped the SI Betting community go 11-6 on player proposition wagers in the NFL playoffs and they have targeted three skill players in Super Bowl LVII.
Let’s take a deeper look at where they made investments!
Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Respected Money Bets
Patrick Mahomes OVER 38.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
This is a market that immediately grabbed the attention of respected money in Vegas. Mahomes has surpassed 38.5 passing attempts in just nine of 19 games this season (47.4%), while only beating this projection in six of 13 playoff games (46%). However, let’s focus on his previous two Super Bowl appearances. Andy Reid has dialed up game plans focusing heavily on Mahomes’s passing ability, attempting 42 passes in Super Bowl LIV followed by 49 in Super Bowl LV. Mahomes attempted 43 passes against Cincinnati in the AFC championship game, opting to remain in the pocket due to his ankle. The outcome of this game, likely rests upon Mahomes’s right arm, resulting in a market bettors need to invest in.
Kenneth Gainwell OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Second-year back Kenneth Gainwell leads the Eagles in rushing yards in the playoff, amassing 160 yards on 26 carries. Gainwell averaged just 14.1 yards per game during the regular season, but he has taken his game to another level in the postseason by upping that average to 80 yards per contest. Gainwell surpassed 20 rushing yards in a game only once during the regular season but he has clearly earned the trust of Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, which has helped the former Memphis standout crush this projection in both playoff games. His rushing prop bet opened at 18.5 yards, but sharp and public steam has pushed the number up to 19.5.
Jerrick McKinnon UNDER 20.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Veteran running back Jerick McKinnon was instrumental in the success of the Kansas City passing attack in the regular season, catching the second-most touchdowns (nine) on the club behind Kelce (13). While averaging an impressive 9.1 yards per reception, McKinnon has only averaged 16.7 rushing yards per game. We learned Monday that running back Clyde-Edwards Helaire has been added to the active roster, taking the place of injured wideout Mecole Hardman. McKinnon, who only has 26 rushing yards on 15 carries in the playoffs, has seen his ground production fall off a cliff over his last five games overall, averaging just 8.6 rushing yards per game since Week 16. With the likelihood that the Chiefs will need his services as a receiver, respected money in Vegas is fading his rushing production against an Eagles defense that has been stout against the run and allows just 73.6 rushing yards per game since Week 13. The sharp steam has forced oddsmakers to drop McKinnon’s original rushing prop demand of 22.5 yards down to 20.5.
Moon Shot Investments
Kenneth Gainwell MOST Rushing Yards In SB LVII (+1500)
This market opened with Gainwell with +2500 odds, but thanks to being on the field for 42% of snaps in the NFC championship against the 49ers, this moon shot play has been trimmed to +1500 odds. Even at lower odds, the value still remains for a sushi money investment on a player with an increasing role.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs: Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Eagles: Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs: Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs: Over 2.5 First Rush Attempt (-105) (Via Twitter)
2022 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 45-36-1 ATS + Props +12.75 U
2021 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 33-27-1 ATS + Props +9.75 U
2021 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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